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In Around and Online 95 02 03
In, Around and Online- Issue 2.5-- Week Ending 2/3/95
=======================================================
Copyright (C) 1995 Robert Seidman (robert@clark.net). All rights
reserved. May be reproduced in any medium for non-commercial purposes.
In This Issue...
================
- More Fun With Numbers
- Another Update On AOL's Inbound Mail Woes
- American Express is Online
- Magazine Memos
- Newsworthy Notes
- Short Takes
- Stock Watch
- How to Get This Newsletter
More Fun With Numbers
=====================
A recent survey from Matrix Information and Directory Services (MIDS) and
Texas Internet Consulting provides the most (in my opinion) accurate
break down of Internet users to date. The results of the survey are
especially helpful to business wanting to market their goods and services
on the net.
The survey breaks usage down into three components as of October 1994:
Core Internet, Consumer Internet and Matrix Internet. Core Internet
accounts for 7.8 million users made up mostly of university and
government domains. Consumer Internet includes the core users and then
adds an additional 5.7 million users accessing from consumer net access
providers like Netcom and ClarkNet, bringing the number to 13.5 million
users. Consumer Internet does include some big commercial online
services like America Online and Delphi that were already offering some
Internet services at the time of the survey. CompuServe's FTP and
Prodigy's WWW were not up and running at the time of the survey.
Finally, the Matrix Internet takes the first two categories and adds an
additional 14 million users who have access to Internet e-mail, but not
Internet services, bringing the grand total to 27.5 million.
The survey results are estimates rather than exact figures, but "they are
based on a large sample of the organizations (companies, universities,
government agencies, individuals, etc.) Comparing the domain names of
the responses with those of the original survey list, we calculate a
confidence interval of about 38 percent." Okay, I know what you're
thinking, "38%, big deal". But they continue: "These are the only
estimates of the size of the Internet that, so far as we know, have
associated any confidence interval at all."
I've looked around. I can't find anything I have higher confidence in.
I'll admit that my confidence in these numbers is somewhat affected by
the fact that the numbers jibe with my gut instincts.
The 27.5 Matrix Internet user base is well within the 20-40 million range
we've been hearing the last couple of years. That over 50% of the users
only have e-mail access is significant. Here's my SWAG at updated
numbers, taking into account growth and the fact that Prodigy and
CompuServe would now be lumped into the consumer Internet.
Core Internet: 7.8 million
Consumer Internet: 17.5 million
Matrix Internet. 28.0 million
If America Online and CompuServe had WWW access today, this would mean
that the total market for business planning to sell goods and services
would be 17 million people. Since they don't, if you put any faith in the
survey and my revisions, the number drops back down to 13 million.
But it's a safe bet that AOL and CIS will get WWW running in the next
90 days if they have to kill a few people to do it, so plan on 17 million
people with access. If we can get the good folks at MIDS
to do a survey on how many of the 17 million that have access actually
will use the WWW regularly, we'll have better numbers to base WWW
generated revenue expectations on.
For more information, contact John Quarterman who is the editor of Matrix
News. He may be reached by e-mail at mids@tic.com .
Another Update On AOL's Inbound Mail Woes
=========================================
For the last couple of weeks you've read here about the delays America
Online members have been experienced receiving inbound mail from the
Internet.
In the monthly letter to AOL subscribers from President and CEO, Steve
Case, the issue was addressed. The good news for America Online is that
they're still growing by leaps and bounds. The bad news for the members
is that they're still blaming growth. That their problems have been
caused by growth is undeniable. But after the problems last year, that
they still blame growth for slow downs is inexcusable. The newer members
may be relieved by the Steve's soothing words. For members who have been
around longer, hearing growth blamed is like salt in the wound. Here are
some clips from Mr. Case's February letter:
"As you may have noticed, the holiday buying season has resulted in an
unprecedented number of new members. With these new members has come a
significant surge in system usage -- particularly electronic mail. We
are now handling more than 1.5 million pieces of mail each day, and the
number continues to grow rapidly.
This delay only applies to inbound Internet mail during evening hours;
Internet mail we receive during the day is generally being delivered
promptly to your AOL mailbox. And outbound Internet mail continues to
be processed instantly.
I know this is a significant inconvenience to many of you and I want to
assure you that we are focused on fixing the problem. We are installing
some changes to our mail system over the next several days that we
believe will significantly improve the quality and timeliness of email."
I think this is a reasonable response, though I think 2-3 weeks is a more
likely time frame than a few days. In my testing, the delays have not
been limited to mail sent from the Internet during the evening. Mr. Case
is definitely in a difficult position here and about the only way he
could have modified the letter to appease some of the grizzled veterans
of past growth problems would have been to add the lines:
"I know you've heard this before, but I was assured by the people
responsible that we'd be able to adjust easily to accommodate new
growth. Frankly, I'm as fed up as the rest of you and have fired the
people who misled me the last time around."
Submissions for "Steve Case Letters We'd Like to See, But Know We Never
Will," are being accepted at robert@clark.net. Use the subject line:
"Warm Regards" (he actually didn't sign his letter that way this
month!). The winning entry will be posted on the WWW page, the FTP site
and will be retrievable via the LISTSERV. The winner will continue to
receive a free subscription to this newsletter just like everyone else.
Letters containing vulgar language will be disqualified (this is a family
newsletter!)
American Express is Online
==========================
As expected, American Express launched their new ExpressNet service on
America Online this week. ExpressNet far surpassed any expectation I had
for it. Last week I wrote about the new Quicken Gold Visa
Card that would automate entry of information into Quicken. Some time
back, I wrote about the service on CompuServe, The Conductor, that lets
you order a CompuServe Visa (on CompuServe use GO CARD) and allows you to
manage some information online and even download it to several personal
finance packages. I expected something similar when I electronically
strolled into ExpressNet. I got a lot more than I bargained for.
Yes, you can order "The Card". Yes, you can manage some information
online if you enroll for personalized access to account information. If
you do, you'll be able to automatically download the information into
several personal finance packages. That's where the similarities end.
ExpressNet offers far more than just the card services, in fact, there's
a full blown travel service that anyone can use whether a card member or
not. Down the road it looks like they have an Express Reservations
service planned that provides a sophisticated interface for easily making
travel reservations. There's a sneak peak up of how it will look once
it's up and running.
Then there's the ExpressNet Global Guide, which has travel "information
from six different sources-- American Express Travel Guides, Frommer's
City Guides, Travel & Leisure magazine, Fodor's Worldview monthly
updates, Distinguished Restaurants of North America, and the American
Express Travel Office directory--under one convenient umbrella." It's
set up so you can browse if your not sure where you'd like to go. If you
have a specific destination in mind, there's a "quick search" feature
available. Or you can explore the Fodor's and Frommer's guides
separately. Both are searchable. Travel and Leisure Online is also
available outside the Global Guide. Message boards including many tips
are available.
ExpressNet is a five star service. But bring your America Online
software, because ExpressNet doesn't accept Prodigy or CompuServe.
Available on America Online via Keyword: AMEX . Credit card puns aside,
in a press conference to announce the new service on America Online,
American Express said they were open to striking deals with other
consumer online services.
Hats off to America Online as well-- the artwork downloads for ExpressNet
are extensive and you can get download them all in one shot in one shot
for FREE by using keyword AMEX ART .
Magazine Memos
================
PC MAGAZINE came out with its "The Changing Face of ON-LINE" issue.
Editors' choice awards were given to CompuServe for "Business" use and
America Online for "home" use. It is nice to know that I am in synch
with my brethren who write for pay over at Ziff-Davis. I agree with
their assessment 100%. The addition of Investor's Business Daily on
America Online has closed the gap some for me, but AOL still lacks good
in depth company reports. This issue of PC Magazine is probably of
interest to anyone reading this. Lots of good information on Prodigy,
Delphi and GEnie as well. It should still be on newsstands now.
SPEAKING of MAGAZINES- you'll want to check out this week's Business Week
for an in depth story on Prodigy. There is also coverage on what's going
on with the European online services market. Pick it up at the newsstand
or check it out on America Online at Keyword: BW . Pretty strange
viewing a picture with screen shots of Prodigy on America Online!
MORE MAGAZINE TALK- CompuServe added Sports Illustrated just in time for
the Super Bowl edition! Football is over now but the Swimsuit issue is
just around the corner. Unlike some Time-Warner publications that are
also available on the Internet, Sports Illustrated is only currently
available on CompuServe. Don't fret Internauts, Time-Warner's PATHFINDER
site does have an icon for SITV (Sports Illustrated TV), and
they're planning a swimsuit preview starting 2/7. Check it out on the
WWW at: http://www.timeinc.com/si/sitv/Welcome.html . I've always been a
fan of Sports Illustrated and the area on CompuServe is top notch. I was
a little worried initially because the downloadable GIF of the SI cover
wasn't of very high quality (that's what happens when you try to make the
picture small enough). But, the pictures that go along with the articles
rival the highest quality of any GIFs I have seen. They come out looking
even clearer than they do in the Magazine. On CompuServe at GO
SIMAGAZINE .
Joining the recent entries of People Magazine and Sports Illustrated on
CompuServe is FORTUNE Magazine. I haven't had time to check the area out
fully, but their cover story, "Kissing Off Corporate America", did catch
my eye. Available on CompuServe at GO FORTUNE .
MECKLERMEDIA CORPORATION announced that WEB WEEK, a publication devoted
to World-Wide Web development, will debut at the Spring Internet World
'95 Conference and Exhibition slated for the San Jose Convention Center,
April 10-13, 1995. Initially Web Week will actually be a monthly, but
once it kicks into high gear, they hope to crank it out weekly. Web Week
will appear in print and on Meckler's WWW site. Angela Gunn, a monthly
columnist for COMPUTER SHOPPER and author of "Plug-N-Play Mosaic", has
been named editor-in-chief of Web Week.
NEWSWORTHY NOTES
================
MICROSOFT ANTI-TRUST UPDATE: Microsoft isn't in the clear yet. At issue
now is a document that allegedly shows that Microsoft warned an
unidentified company not to come out with a product that would run on a
competitor's operating system. The document is being reviewed as part of
a continuing investigation by the Justice Department. But assistant
Attorney General, Anne Bingaman said in a court filing that the document
isn't relevant as it "does not discuss any product that was the subject
of the government's complaint or the proposed consent decree." Bingaman
is urging U.S. District Judge Stanley Sporkin to approve the consent
decree immediately. According to a story from Reuters, Bingaman said
that any reliance on the document would be "fundamentally unfair," as
the document has not been turned over to Microsoft
TIME WARNER and SPIEGEL (Chicago 60609) announced that their cable
shopping joint venture, Catalog1 would reduce the number of hours of
programming and begin to market its products on the Internet via the
World Wide Web.
AMERICA ONLINE's Board of Directors amended the shareholder rights plan
to make it harder for a hostile takeover bid to occur. Under the amended
plan, America Online shareholders will be entitled to buy the shares at a
discount if a person or entity acquires a 15 percent stake in the
company. Previously, the rights were triggered at 25%. "The board has
decided to lower the trigger threshold to make it consistent with the
vast majority of such plans," according to America Online President and
CEO, Steve Case. "We want to be very clear that this amendment was not
in response to any effort to acquire control of the company, as we are
not aware of any such effort."
NEC CORP announced plans to begin offering Japanese businesses with an
easy method of accessing the Internet later this month. NEC is expecting
to land 1,000 corporate customers and generate over two billion yen in
revenue over the next three years.
VISA is using Sun Microsystems' Client/Server technology to expand its
transaction processing systems for innovative remote-access banking services.
FTP SOFTWARE unveiled a new version of its PC/TCP OnNet software that
includes a powerful Windows e-mail application, Mail OnNet,
along with point-and-click dial-up network access via a new "Connection
Wizard," centralized server installation, and other enhanced
applications.
COMPATIBLE SYSTEMS Corporation announced that it has signed agreements
with leading Internet software developer SPRY, Incorporated and Internet
service provider UUNET Technologies to offer WorldWire(TM) for Windows, a
corporate Internet bundle designed for Windows-based Ethernet networks.
A Macintosh-based version of WorldWire is also available.
PRODIGY announced on Monday that over 100,000 Prodigy members (new and
old alike) have already downloaded the new WWW browser software and as
many as 12,000 per day are downloading the software. "The phenomenal
growth in usage among PRODIGY's membership demonstrates a large,
previously untapped consumer interest in the World Wide Web," according
to Prodigy Director of Internet Services Bill Day. It must be very
tense in the CompuServe and America Online WWW departments.
AT&T ANNOUNCED the appointment of William K. Young to the new position of
on-line services content vice president for Consumer Interactive
Services. Mr. Young was previously Vice President of content for
Prodigy.
CONCERNED CITIZENS in the U.S. can now donate money to victims of the
Kobe, Japan earthquake through an Internet-based donation system
sponsored by the American Red Cross and Global Network Navigator, an
Internet-based online service published by O'Reilly & Associates, Inc.
Available on the WWW- http://nearnet.ora.com/gnn/bus/redcross/index.html
KNIGHT RIDDER subsidiary, Philadelphia Newspapers Inc. (publishers of the
Philadelphia Daily News and The Inquirer) announced a regional Internet
"experiment" with Advance Publications (owner of the three New Jersey
newspapers: the Trenton Times, the Newark Star-Ledger and the Jersey
Journal). Scheduled to appear on the World Wide Web as early as April.
MCI CHIEF, Bert Roberts, speaking at a Chamber of Commerce luncheon in
Atlanta said, "The Internet is the next commercial frontier." "Think
about it," said Roberts. "You can have access to millions of customers.
Products and services can be sold 24 hours a day. And since transactions
are handled electronically, sales and distribution can be done much more
cost-effectively." I don't want to be so bold as to presume that the
head of MCI is reading my newsletter, but that is sort of reminiscent of
my "down comforter" spiel.
SHORT TAKES
===========
LEGAL INFO on the net. Check out P-LAW's Legal Resource Locator at:
http://www.dorsai.org/p-law/ . Quoting the page, " The purpose of this
Web Page is to serve as a starting point for Research, be it by attorneys
or non-legal professionals, into the myriad disciplines involved in
today's increasingly "legalistic" society. Delving into the pages a
little bit further it turns out that P-LAW is now a "Trojan horse".
P-LAW plans to begin offering dial up Internet accounts in the 212 area
code and WWW design and consulting; they'll even house your page. I
don't know how they'll be as an Internet provider and WWW consultants,
but the Legal Resources Locator looks pretty good. Points added for not
having any "O.J. Links" (at least none that I could see). Extra points
added for finding a link to *my* home page in their list of "Fun Pages"!
IF YOU'RE THINKING about putting up products and services on the WWW,
you'll want to check out SpectraCom at http://www.spectracom.com/ .
They're providing WWW consulting as well as Internet market research and
communications services. I really liked this page, not because of the
pretty graphics, but because of their people pages. Exploring them made
me feel as if I was getting to know the people in their company. If
you're like me, you want to know who you're dealing with. They're a
small staff, but they're packed with experience. Including one Scott
Yanoff who just happens to know a thing or two about services provided
via the Internet. Back in the pre-newsletter writing days when I had
more time on my hands, I used to devour the information provided in
Scott's "Internet Services List".
YOU'RE ENTITLED to discuss entitlement reform with Senator Bob Kerry
(D-NEB) on Tuesday, February 8 from 6-7 PM, ET. Sponsored by the Capital
Connection on America Online. Keyword: ODEON .
THE GROUNDHOG SAID that Spring was right around the corner. I think the
groundhog was a little miffed about being woken up-- It hasn't been this
cold and snowy all winter! But you don't have to rely on
Punxsutawney Phil-- you can go straight to the Weather Channel Online.
On CompuServe at: GO TWCFORUM .
SEAL TO GUEST on this week's edition of Warner Bros. Records'
Cyber-Talk. Seal fans will be able to chat with him regarding his
self-titled second album. Monday, February 6 at 9:30 p.m. EST. On
America Online at Keyword: WARNER .
POSTCARD FROM CYBERSPACE is the name of a weekly column by Daniel Akst
that has been running in the Los Angeles Times on Wednesdays. You don't
have to live in Los Angeles to read or enjoy they column. Prodigy
members can sign up for TIMESLINK and read the Los Angeles Times no
matter where they live. Jump to TIMESLINK then select Business and
Technology, then select Computers and Technology, then select Exploring
Cyberspace. It sounds a lot harder than it really is!
IF YOU MISSED the online conference on CompuServe to celebrate the
release of a Bob Dylan CD-ROM, Highway 61 Interactive, it's still not to
late to take a peek at some of the stuff from the CD-ROM. There's a
special download area at GO DYLAN on CompuServe.
LOTS OF O.J. stuff- all of which I refuse to cover. But it doesn't
really matter. No matter what service you use, there is O.J. coverage.
FOLLOW THE IDITAROD SLED dog race. America Online members can keep on
top of the grueling 1,049 trek through the Alaskan tundra from the
comfort of their own homes. Though the race doesn't start until March 4,
members can get themselves pysched up for it by going to Keyword:
IDITAROD .
Stock Watch
===========
Last This 52 52
Week's Week's Week Week
Company Ticker Close Close High Low
------- ------ ------ ------ ------- -------
America Online AMER $52.75 $58.63 $58.63 $25.13
Apple AAPL $39.88 $40.50 $48.06 $24.63
Netcom NETC $24.00 $23.00 $29.25 $16.75
AT&T T $49.88 $51.13 $57.13 $47.25
General Electric GE $50.50 $52.13 $54.88 $45.00
H&R Block HRB $34.75 $37.13 $48.75 $33.00
IBM IBM $72.50 $74.63 $77.25 $51.38
MCI MCIC $17.63 $19.13 $27.88 $17.25
Microsoft MSFT $59.88 $60.13 $65.25 $39.00
Sears S $45.25 $46.75 $55.13 $42.13
How to Get This Newsletter
==========================
Via LISTSERV: send an e-mail to LISTSERV@CLARK.NET and in the BODY
of the message type: SUBSCRIBE ONLINE-L YOUR FULL NAME
example: SUBSCRIBE ONLINE-L Robert Seidman
Via Anonymous FTP: FTP to ftp.clark.net . Back issues are in the
pub/robert directory.
Via the Word Wide Web: point your browser to:
http://www.clark.net/pub/robert/home.html
Via the newsgroups. In, Around and Online is regularly posted to
alt.online-service, alt.internet services and alt.business.
Coming Soon: Review of Apple Computer's eWORLD.
See you next week.
