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The Aggressive Trader Vol. 2, No. 33
Ken Deen's
THE AGGRESSIVE TRADER(tm)
"Seeking double-digit profits in one to four months"
ALERT
Vol. 2, No. 33 P.O. Box 4791
February 23, 1993 Santa Barbara, CA 93140
9:30am New York Time CompuServe: 72020,2050
(805) 565-2039 Internet: 72020.2050@compuserve.com
Market Stance: Bearish
*** ALERT ITEMS: ***
Marginable Account (editor's personal account):
* SELL 100 Pyxis Corp. (NASDAQ: PYXS).
Today I sold all 100 shares at 41. I had bought these shares Jan. 22
at 43 3/4 (Vol.2 #13).
After this trade, the account value is $35,533. Of that, $36,100 is
long stocks and ($567) is a debit margin balance.
IRA Account (editor's personal account):
* SELL 150 Cherry Corp. (NASDAQ: CHER).
Today I sold all 150 shares at 26 3/4. I had bought these shares Jan.
27 at 28 3/4 (Vol.2 #16).
After this trade, the account value is $39,206. Of that, $34,325 is
long stocks and $4,881 is cash.
*** TRADING IDEA ITEMS (There will be no followup on these ideas): ***
Other Trading Ideas:
* Vintage Petroleum Inc. (NYSE: VPI, $16.88)
EPS:99, RS:95, GR:90->86(*), PE:33, Oil&Gas-US Exploration & Production
Comments: Strong market reaction to excellent earnings report.
Quarterly earnings-per-share 23 cents vs. 10 cents on a 46% gain in
sales. Trailing earnings jumped 34%; P/E dropped 18%.
Pyxis Corp. and Cherry Corp.
As I discussed in my previous Alert (Vol.2 #30), I have changed my market
stance to bearish. This means I need to make some serious adjustments to my
portfolio in the coming weeks. My portfolio is far too exposed on the long
side, given my newly bearish stance.
This portfolio adjustment is going to mean taking some losses. I am taking
losses today in both of these stocks (in the case of Pyxis, however, I made
a small profit overall on the 250 shares I bought, since I sold most them last
week at 47 1/4 [Vol.2 #29]).
My market timing program gives a market sell signal about once a year.
When it does, my goal is no longer a "double-digit profit in one to four
months" for the stocks I bought prior to the sell signal; my goal becomes
"preservation of capital", or "damage control". I'd rather be in cash!
This portfolio adjustment is painful, but necessary in my opinion. I don't
expect to have to go through this painful bullish-to-bearish transition again
for another year or so.
Announcement: (*) Improved Group Ranking
The manner in which group strength is reported has recently changed. Every
Wednesday, Investor's Business Daily lists all 197 industry groups (plus
the S&P 500 and S&P Industrial indices) ranked in order of percent change
over the prior six months. This ranking is on a scale of 1 to 199, with
#1 being the best performing group and #199 the worst.
An entry, for example, of
GR:37->28, ..., Computer Software
means that the ranking of the Computer Software group is 28, as of the most
recent Wednesday. The first number, 37, is the average rank over the
preceding eight Wednesdays. From this information, one may infer that the
computer software group is performing well (28 is a relatively low number on
the 1-to-199 scale), and also that the software group appears to be gaining
favor (28 is an improvement over the prior 8-week average of 37).
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Previous Alert: Vol.2 #30 (Feb. 17, 1993)
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*** To all who download this newsletter ***
On April 1, 1993, this newsletter will be available only for a
subscription fee. There will be no further uploads on or after that date.
From now through March 31, 1993, I am offering at-cost subscriptions (very
very inexpensive) by e-mail, fax, and postal mail. These are alternatives
to downloading. Also, Monthly Status Reports are available in printed form
only. These are chock-full of informative charts, graphs, and tables
reviewing newsletter performance and explaining the DESI(tm) System. I
invite you to send me your postal mail address so that I may send you a
Monthly Status Report and an at-cost subscription form. -Ken Deen
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The Aggressive Trader is edited and published at irregular intervals, but
at least monthly, by Deen Capital Management, Inc., P.O. Box 4791, Santa
Barbara, California 93140, (805) 565-2039.
Deen Capital Management, Inc., its principals, employees, affiliates,
and/or clients may have positions in securities recommended herein and may
make additional purchases and/or sales in these securities.
Recommendations made in this publication involve a high degree of risk and
may result in losses. Readers should not assume that recommendations will be
profitable or will equal past performance. The information in this
publication is collected from sources believed to be reliable, but neither the
accuracy nor the completeness of this information is guaranteed.
The Aggressive Trader, Deen Earnings Surprise Index, DESI, and DESI-3 are
all trademarks of Deen Capital Management, Inc.
Copyright (c) 1993 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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